Leeham News and Analysis
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Rolls-Royce2026 Outlook: It’s back in large engines; can it get back into the Single Aisle as well?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
January 29, 2026, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce has posted a string of increasing profits over the last few years after a tough period that 
started in 2017, when its Trent 1000 engines on ANA’s Boeing 787s developed a turbine-corrosion problem, cutting time on wing to a fraction of what it should be. These turbine problems escalated into a global issue, affecting all Trent 1000-equipped 787s.
The Trent 1000 on Boeing’s 787 has since experienced a series of problems, beginning with the need to replace turbine blades, followed by compressor vibration that required replacing blades on the intermediate compressor. Engines must be removed from the wing to remove the turbine and compressor blades during engine overhaul, resulting in Rolls-Royce Trent-equipped 787s being grounded for periods.
The result has been a dwindling market share for the 787, with the competing engine OEM, GE, now claiming an 78% market share for its GEnx-1B engine, and charges to the business for the cost to fix the problems for the airlines.
The drama surrounding the 787 was not expected. The Rolls-Royce RB211-535 had been the best engine on the Boeing 757 (versus Pratt & Whitney’s PW2040), and on the Airbus A330, the Trent 700 has a dominant market share versus GE’s CF6 and Pratt & Whitney’s PW4000, as it offers solid performance and maturity.
To add to injury, a former management had decided that the Single Aisle market was too small a fish for Rolls-Royce and exited the cooperation with Pratt & Whitney for the A320/A321 V2500 in 2011. The aftermarket income from spares for the V2500 began to decline as the Trent 1000 kept 787s on the ground and COVID-19 hit. When COVID hit in 2020, Rolls-Royce struggled with losses because of these engine problems and strategic mistakes.
Boeing FY2025: Company posts small profit on Services division; BCA still losing money
By Karl Sinclair
Jan. 27, 2026, © Leeham News: The Boeing Company (BA) released its full-year 2025 results, and indications are that the company is headed in the right direction. However, some monumental tasks face the corporation in the short-to-medium term.
Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA) is still in a loss-making position. BCA lost $7bn, compared with $8bn in 2024. Boeing Defense, Space and Security (BDS) was near break-even. Boeing Global Services (BGS) was the only profitable division, boosting the corporation to an annual profit on the back of the $10.6bn sale of part of its business.
BCA delivered 160 aircraft during 4Q2025, including 117 of the cash-cow 737 MAX series and 27 Dreamliners.
This boosted BCA revenues in the final quarter to $11.379bn, up from $4,762bn, year-over-year (YoY). Full-year revenues hit $41.494bn, almost doubling 2024 sales of $22.861bn.
Source: All tables and images via Boeing.
The company is adamant about demonstrating stability in production and the supply chain at rate 42/mo, before making the leap to 47/mo by mid-2026.
787 rates are expected to stabilize at 8/mo, as investments in the Charleston (SC) production facilities begin to take shape, boosting output into the double digits in 2026.
RTX 2025 Earnings: Commercial Aerospace Leads Growth as Pratt Advances GTF Recovery
By Chris Sloan
Jan. 27, 2026 © Leeham News: “RTX is constructed to meet the moment—by the moment I mean the ramp both in defense and commercial—and to drive long-term value for customers and shareholders,” RTX President and Chief Executive Officer Christopher Calio said as the company closed 2025.
The company has strong order momentum and a record backlog, driven by commercial aerospace demand and continued progress at Pratt & Whitney as the company works through the Geared Turbofan (GTF) powder metal issue.
RTX ended the year with a full-year book-to-bill of 1.56 and a $268bn backlog, up 23% year over year, including $161bn of commercial orders and $107bn of defense awards. Commercial backlog rose 29%, supported by higher aircraft production rates and resilient passenger air travel, while organic growth was led by commercial OE and aftermarket.
At Pratt, management emphasized improving performance as the GTF program continues to grow and newer contracts begin to reshape the business. Chief Financial Officer Neil G. Mitchill Jr. said Pratt is “growing out of the older contracts,” with improved pricing on new work and legacy businesses remaining intact, positioning the segment for margin expansion over the next several years as backlog is executed.
Looking ahead, RTX outlined several areas that will shape results in 2026 and beyond, including continued improvements in GTF fleet management, rising MRO output, and the transition to the GTF Advantage engine. Management also pointed to alignment with OEM production ramp-ups, continued improvement at Collins Aerospace, and increased focus on defense output and capital deployment following recent comments from the Trump Administration, framing the company’s outlook as it balances near-term execution with longer-term growth across commercial and defense markets.
RTX Q4 and FY 2025 Earnings Call Slide Image: RTX
Open Forum Week of Jan. 26
Jan. 26, 2026: LNA’s Comments Open Forum allows Readers opportunities to comment about any post (note, we said “Post”, not any “Topic”). All comments will be held for review and Moderation per our new policy. The Open Forum enables Readers to Comment on paywall articles (to the extent the paywall preview is open to all readers).
Maintain civility and follow Reader Comment rules.
A new Open Forum will be posted weekly.
Pratt & Whitney builds for the future while wrestling with the present
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By Bjorn Fehrm and Charlotte Bailey
January 26, 2026, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney (PW) bet big on the geared turbofan to take it back to a sizeable position in the market’s largest airliner segment, the Single-Aisle. It spent more than 20 years to develop the fan gearbox, including functional demonstrator engines that flew on Airbus test aircraft to prove the technology.
The effort was a success; the gearbox in the Pratt & Whitney range of Geared TurboFans, GTFs, has worked perfectly. It achieved what was promised, a low fuel consumption, and has been rock-solid in its function.
Yet PW’s GTFs have had a range of problems since their introduction in 2016. Bent main shafts, combustors that burn through, bearings that fail. And on top, a huge call-back of engines, as a contaminated power metal process has produced compressor and turbine discs that risk failing before their on-engine life expires. The situation has caused over 600 Airbus A320 and A321neos with GTF engines to be grounded for engine replacements, if and when replacement discs are available.
The issues, stemming from the “business as usual” parts of the GTF, have led to write-offs of billions of dollars for PW’s mother RTX and to lost market share to the competing CFM LEAP engine on the Airbus A320/321neo series. But while this clouds the business of yesterday and today, Pratt & Whitney still has the clout to invest in the future. Being part of one of the World’s largest Defence and Aerospace Companies is an important part of the answer.
Figure 1. The Maeve MJ500 with the revolutionary Pratt & Whitney Canada Constant Volume Open Fan engine. Source: Maeve. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 24. Post certification, Sustainment phase.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam.
January 23, 2026, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have looked at the preparation work around entry into service; now we talk about post-certification work and the support of the new airliner generating revenue flights for the airline customer.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
** Special thanks to Andrew Telesca for helping with this article **
GE Aerospace FY and Q4 2025 Earnings Thrust Higher Propelled by Services Growth, LEAP Volume and Expanding Margins
By Chris Sloan
Jan. 22, 2026, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace closed 2025 with a materially larger order book than in prior years, underscoring sustained demand across both commercial and defense markets as the company continues to lean on its services-heavy business model. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Larry Culp said 2025 marked a year of operational progress and execution. “2025 was an outstanding year for GE Aerospace as we made operational progress, delivered on our financial commitments, and continued to invest in our future,” Culp said.
The fourth quarter provided a strong finish to the year, with management pointing to robust demand for both services and equipment as customers continued to prioritize engine availability and fleet utilization. For the full year, the company cited improvement across its key operating measures, supported by growth in both Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies. Culp highlighted a backlog of roughly $190bn—nearly $20bn higher than a year earlier—as evidence of sustained demand across commercial and defense customers. “GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise,” Culp said, pointing to the company’s installed base of approximately 80,000 engines. He added that continued deployment of the FLIGHT DECK operating model is expected to improve execution and customer support across the fleet.
Analysts said the results reinforced the durability of GE’s aftermarket-driven earnings profile. “A robust conclusion to 2025 from GE, with the engine aftermarket continuing to produce strong growth,” said Robert Stallard of Vertical Partners Research. “While this growth is expected to ease in 2026, it should be roughly similar to OEM growth, and so GE should not see a meaningful mix shift.” Similarly, Seth M. Seifman of J.P. Morgan said the fourth-quarter results were solid and that the initial outlook suggests operating profit could exceed current consensus. “It’s always hard to know how good is good enough,” Seifman said, “but we view the results as solid… and the potential for upward revisions appears to be in place.”
Image courtesy: GE Aerospace
GE 2026 Outlook: From LEAP Momentum to 777X Certification and the Rise of RISE
By Chris Sloan, Tom Batchelor and Charlotte Bailey
January 22, 2026, © Leeham News: After a strong 2025 marked by rising output, expanding services, and improving execution, GE Aerospace enters 2026 with momentum building across four major programs that define its near- and long-term outlook: the GE9X and the long-delayed Boeing 777X as certification advances toward a 2027 entry into service; the LEAP program as record production levels combine with durability improvements that are beginning to take hold; the widebody GEnx franchise steadily growing its installed base and aftermarket contribution; and the RISE Open Fan as a high-risk, high-reward investment in next-generation single-aisle propulsion.
Throughout the year, strengthening supply-chain performance, rising engine deliveries, and robust services growth translated into improved financial results, reinforcing confidence that GE Aerospace’s operational recovery is gaining traction. Further detail was revealed when the company reported full-year 2025 earnings on Jan. 22. The company will test whether this momentum can be sustained—converting higher volumes, maturing reliability initiatives, and disciplined investment in future technologies into durable earnings growth, even as certification timelines stretch and the industry remains cautious about launching the next clean-sheet aircraft.
GE Aerospace’s latest engine application. Credit: GE.
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Boeing planning to activate North Line with 737-8s/9s in advance of MAX 10 certification
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 20, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing is preparing to activate its North Line for 737 production by mid-year, with 737-8s and 737-9s first to be assembled as a prelude to its intended purpose: assembling the long-delayed 737-10.
Boeing has been informally asking the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) a series of “what if” questions in advance of a formal request to activate the North Line. This is the first time the 737 will be assembled away from its Renton (WA) facility, which has served as its home since the original model program more than 50 years ago.
This is important because the North Line is brand new, it needs FAA certification, and the MAX 10 is new (only a couple have been built at Renton), pending certification. Employees who will be assigned to the North Line will be a mix of Renton transfers, new hires, and Everett incumbents. The latter has never built a 737.
Boeing 787 bay at the Everett factory in 2023. Boeing was engaged in reworking following discovery of a production flaw. Credit: Leeham News.
Gaining FAA approval to build the 737-8/9 on the North Line will smooth production certification and enable employees without 737 production experience to gain some before the MAX 10 is added to the line. While Boeing all along said the North Line is intended for the MAX 10, LNA confirmed that it is capable of assembling the MAX 8, 9, and 10.
Additionally, since the MAX 10 (and the smallest family member, the MAX 7) remain uncertified pending changes that must be made as a result of the overall 737 MAX crisis revelations, Boeing wants to avoid building up an inventory of MAX 10s that would require changes mandated by the FAA.
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The company wants to begin production as early as May or June. Earlier, Boeing previously said activating the line may not occur until the end of the year, awaiting certification of the 737-10. More recently, CEO Kelly Ortberg identified mid-year as the activation target date. A formal request to the FAA may come as early as March.
Ahead of its year-end 2025 earnings call and in its quiet period, Boeing declined to comment.
Open Forum: Week of Jan. 19
Jan. 12, 2026: LNA’s Comments Open Forum allows Readers opportunities to comment about any post (note, we said “Post”, not any “Topic”). All comments will be held for review and Moderation per our new policy. The Open Forum enables Readers to Comment on paywall articles (to the extent the paywall preview is open to all readers).
Maintain civility and follow Reader Comment rules.
A new Open Forum will be posted weekly.