Leeham News and Analysis
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Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 20. Flight Testing.
by Bjorn Fehrm and Henry Tam
December 12, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series about ideas on how the long development times for large airliners can be shortened. New projects talk about cutting development time and reaching certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and what different ideas there are to reduce the development times.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have completed the articles on Prototype Manufacturing and Ground Vibration Tests (GVT). We now conduct the program’s flight tests with the manufactured test aircraft.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
Airbus: Digitalization helping drive enhanced supply chain resilience
By Charlotte Bailey
Dec. 11, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: “Aerospace is entering into a defining new era. Demand is rising, sustainability is non-negotiable, and resilience has become as crucial as performance.”
Benoit Schultz. Credit: Airbus.
Speaking on the opening day of the 2025 Hamburg Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Germany, newly appointed Airbus chief procurement officer Benoit Schultz reflected on the aerospace industry’s ongoing work to mitigate an evolving landscape of challenges.
Crucially, endeavours to strengthen a global supply chain come at a time when new threats challenge the resilience of a sector that has, over the last five years, faced ample Covid-related complexities.
“In recent years, the aviation industry has undergone the most severe test in its history,” explained Schultz. And although the industry has also “become even more global” over the last several years, something Schultz believes has “added to [its] strength,” this also brings trade-offs. “We have learned that complex does not always mean robust, and that global can also become a vulnerability,” he continued. “This lesson has driven a shift in mindset from efficiency at all costs to resilience and robustness as a strategic imperative.”
Notably, Schultz believes that “the speed of change is accelerating,” driven by a combination of national political instability, the complexity of trade barriers, and rising geopolitical tensions hindering access to raw materials, parts and technologies. The ability to manage these ongoing risks is especially crucial projected increased demand for aircraft. Airbus’ annual Global Market Forecast, published in June 2025, identified a worldwide fleet of some 50,000 operational aircraft in the next two decades (of which new deliveries will comprise around 45%).
Avolon: Looking to long-term eco-aviation investment opportunities
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By Charlotte Bailey
Dec. 11, 2025, © Leeham News: With around 50% of the world’s operational commercial aircraft owned by lessors, companies such as Avolon are keeping
a weather eye on the technologies that could power the fleet of the future.
And as the aircraft purchased today are likely to be operating well into the 2050s, understanding the impact of upcoming sustainability incentives and technologies is already a relevant consideration.
Books for Christmas gifts
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 9, 2025, © Leeham News: I thought 2025 was rather light on good, new aviation books (my own, The Rise and Fall of Boeing and the Way Back, being an obvious exception!). So, there will be a couple of non-aviation books on this year’s list and some that were published earlier but which I read this year.
Skies of Thunder
Skies of Thunder: The Deadly World War II Mission Over the Roof of the World, by Caroline Alexander (2024).
This is a book for which misplaced expectations will drive the reader’s enjoyment. The title and the cover imply the focus is on flying the Hump, the massive airlift of World War II over the Himalaya Mountains from India into China. In reality, this book is more focused on the greater China-Burma-India theatre. Alexander describes the politics within the United States military and War Department, all the way up to President Roosevelt; and between the US and Britain, which had very different views of the viability of supporting China’s leader, Chiang Kai- Shek, whose corruption was legendary even in real time, and whose motives were more about maintaining his position vis-à-vis the Chinese Communists.
The CBI theatre didn’t get the attention that the European/African war against Germany and Italy did, nor the war against the Japanese. It’s an interesting story filled with descriptions of the characters involved. If your expectations are thus set, this is a good read.
However, for a far more detailed description of the Hump war, 2012’s China’s Wings by Gregory Crouch is the better book.
Supply chain continues to bedevil Airbus, Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 8, 2025, © Leeham News: Supply chain difficulties continue to bedevil Airbus and Boeing deliveries this year.
Embraer also has had some impact from supply chain disruptions, but at a much lower rate.
November deliveries by Airbus and Boeing are lower than in September and October. Boeing delivered 53 and 55 aircraft, respectively—but only 42 in November.
Airbus and Boeing are struggling to meet production goals because the supply chain still can’t delivery parts and engines on time. In some cases, quality also is a factor. Photo Credit: Airbus.
Airbus delivered 78 aircraft in October and 73 in September. Defective panels delivered by a supplier, which Airbus did not identify, for the A320 family were discovered, impacting total November deliveries (72) and anticipated December deliveries. Airbus now expects to deliver 790 aircraft this year compared with its original guidance of 823. Airbus delivered 84 aircraft in November last year. Airbus needs to deliver 133 aircraft this month to meet its revised, lower goal.
In addition, delays in receiving interiors, mainly from Collins and Safran but also from others, caused Airbus and Boeing to delay widebody deliveries. Continuing shortages of engines from Pratt & Whitney and CFM (GE and Safran) for the GTF and LEAP impacted Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. PW continues to divert new production GTFs to AOG (Aircraft on Ground) A220s, A320s and E-Jets. A strike at GE interrupted CFM LEAP deliveries.
Airbus and Boeing want to increase production rates next year and in following years. The supply chain is the driving factor.
Aerospace analyst Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets raises some caution from the supply chain in his survey for the second half of 2025. In a report issued on Dec. 4, Herbert wrote, “Just when confidence in the aerospace OE outlook appears to have inflected, we get a reminder from Airbus (ELAC software, metal fuselage panel quality escape) that the industry is still dependent on a relatively fragile supply chain, and we believe the supply chain will remain part of the A&D narrative for the foreseeable future.”
Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 19. Flight Test Aircraft Assembly.
December 5, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a series on ways to shorten the long development times for large airliners. New projects aim to cut development time and achieve certification and production faster than previous projects.
The series will discuss the typical development cycles for an FAA Part 25 aircraft, called a transport category aircraft, and the different approaches to reducing development time.
We will use the Gantt plan in Figure 1 as a base for our discussions. We have exited the Detailed Design phase after conducting Critical Design Reviews, CDRs, and now enter into Prototype Manufacturing. After reviewing the acceptance and testing of the first parts and systems from suppliers, we now discuss putting together the first flight-test aircraft.
Figure 1. A generic new Part 25 airliner development plan. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see better.
** Special thanks to Ron Everlove for helping with this article **
Comments on freewall posts are closed for now
Dec. 4, 2025: Due to repeated violations of Reader Comment Rules by a select few, who have ignored warnings, comments on news freewall articles and some more recent articles are closed for the rest of the year.
Comments remain open on Paywall articles.
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 4.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 4, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the aircraft batteries. These are heavy components with very low energy capacity per unit weight.
To illustrate the kind of aircraft-level challenges the batteries pose, we are using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to design a typical alternative-propulsion battery-electric aircraft and then fly it on typical missions.
The aircraft is similar in size to a 9-seat Tecnam P2012 commuter (Figure 1) but optimised for Battery-Electric propulsion.
Figure 1. The Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
The APCM will give us the airframe-level energy consumption for each phase of the flight. Subsequently, we can add the different losses in the propulsion system to determine the energy consumed from the battery and the endurance/range it offers, dependent on VFR or IFR mission reserves.
Boeing CFO Jay Malave: Priorities are debt, investments, then shareholders
By Karl Sinclair
Dec. 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s chief financial officer outlined the priorities for the use of cash going forward, and it reaffirms what has been obvious but largely unstated: debt reduction is the top priority.
Speaking at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference, The Boeing Company’s (BA) new Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Jay Malave reiterated the corporation’s prudent position on where Free Cash Flow (FCF) was going to be spent.
“I think that between the balance that we have today, the cash flow that we’re going to be generating, that will give us plenty of optionality to pay down the debt, to invest in the future, and start thinking at the right time about investor returns,” Malave said.
Boeing CFO Jay Malave. Source: Boeing.
This is quite a departure from the position of the previous CFO Greg Smith, who once reported that Boeing was committed to returning 100% of FCF to investors. It is very much in line with the new culture that CEO Kelly Orberg is attempting to instill in the company.
Boeing’s “hangover” of the MAX is over, says former acting FAA administrator who dealt with crisis
By Scott Hamilton
Dan Elwell, former acting administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration. Credit: Alaska Airlines.
Dec. 3, 2025, © Leeham News, Washington (DC): Boeing’s “hangover” and PTSD (post-traumatic stress syndrome) following the 737 MAX crisis of 2019 and beyond is over, says the former acting administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) who had to deal with the fallout before Congress.
Dan Elwell faced investigations from hostile Congressional hearings, a criminal probe, civil litigation, an Inspector General’s inquiry from the FAA’s parent department, and in-depth reporting from many newspapers and television media in the months after the second of two MAXes crashed in March 2019, five months after the first fatal accident. The probes, lawsuits and civil and criminal discoveries revealed serious safety and quality control shortfalls at Boeing and shortcomings of the FAA’s oversight of the company and certification of the MAX.
“The FAA still is sort of feeling and nursing sort of the wounds,” Elwell said during an appearance on Dec. 2 at the monthly luncheon of the AeroClub of Washington (DC). “There was a certain amount of MAX PTSD after the pressures that hung around for a while” at Boeing and the FAA.
Elwell said that the biggest challenge he felt was trying to get both the agency and the “really outstanding engineers and people” who work at Boeing to sort of put it behind them, and do what they know best with confidence. Then, Elwell said, it was necessary to support those who were doing what they know how to do best.
“I think…the FAA is getting there,” he said, adding that Boeing is also making progress. Then company is meeting Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that they’re following, and recently received FAA approval to increase the 737 production rate from 38/mo to 42/mo. Boeing wants to further increase rates to 47/mo and 52/mo in two “rate breaks” next year.